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By Himfr Ivy
2010 market prices in China since corn production cuts-or demand, policy, under the influence of various factors show rose sharply trend. In late November begins, increasing by state a series of measures to influence, the national corn prices start rallied in local areas corn prices were slightly weaker, the overall market shows signs of stabilizing.
2010 market prices in China since corn production cuts-or demand, policy, under the influence of various factors show rose sharply trend. 6 month, by policy regulation, domestic corn market high volatility. Ten months later, commodity prices, led by the new season corn prices high leave high to go, rise quickly. In late November in national macro-control measures under the influence of the weak, at present, go to start maintained high small-scope fluctuation situation. Subject to domestic corn demand to increase, and the influence of inflation expectations, is expected to 2011 domestic corn market prices are still take high space.
Corn production and marketing analysis corn production situation
Although by north region sustained low temperature sleeting weather, 2010 many areas maize seeding progress delay, but because maize growth during the overall weather conditions, plus good by corn comparative-effectiveness relatively high impact, 2010 national maize seeding area increased, corn to produce a good harvest. Although agencies for this year’s predicted yield data from specific, but there is a certain difference because last year JianFu maize yield is larger, the market generally think this year maize yield will than last year, but there has been a marked increase in the increase rate in the certain quantity discrepancy. Chinese food nets data show that by corn prices runs in high impact, 2010 national maize seeding area approximately 4.71 million acres, is expected to national corn output is about 000 tons, the increased 950 million tons last year. 2008/09 annual national corn output amounted to a record 16590 tons, is a bumper year. And 2009/10 year due to the northeast region suffered serious adverse weather effects, make the 2009/10 year to become a crop year. According to this year’s corn production and yield predicted, this year’s corn overall view is a yield February alone.
Corn consumption situation
Domestic corn consumption is mainly feed and industrial consumption, relative wheat, rice varieties, such as rations macroeconomic situation of corn consumption greatly influenced. Along with the economic recovery, is expected to 2010/11 annual domestic animal feed and deep processing corn remained stable. According to the data, expect grain nets 2010/11 year 16300 tons, domestic corn consumption than last year’s increases 425 tons, growth around 2.7%. Specific perspective, is expected to 2010 11th annual feed use of grain consumption 9850 tons, the year increase of 1.5 million tons; Industrial corn consumption for 4750 tons, the year increased 2.5 million tons.
Corn market analysis
Domestic corn spot market
Since this year domestic market prices in many factors maize under the action of revealed a general trend of rising. Southern 16 provinces of feed cultivation enterprise to the northeastern purchasing corn subsidies unveils the multi-agent bid for beginning. By multiple subject bid for influence, beginning in March, the domestic corn prices appeared rising dramatically. In order to stabilize the domestic corn market price, late may countries began to increase corn market control power, domestic corn market prices at slightly weaker. But in the middle of July, after rising domestic corn prices start again, and breaks the prophase high. Starting in September, the corn listed seasonal pressure, domestic corn prices appear has slipped back a bit. New corn listed in the peripheral commodity prices, after driving under the new corn purchase price leave high to go high, appeared anti-season of big rises in price. In late November begins, increasing by state a series of measures to influence, the national corn prices start rallied in local areas corn prices were slightly weaker, the overall market shows signs of stabilizing.
Domestic corn futures market
Since the 2010 DaShangSuo corn futures contract price out of substantially higher corn spot price movements, the stronger become futures contract go strong foundation.
Mid-may until the middle of June, in national regulation under pressure, domestic corn futures prices had appeared certain scope callback. July began, subject to domestic breeding recovery influence and domestic partial areas suffer catastrophic weather boost and wheat varieties such as rising drive, corn spot price reason rebound, promote the corn futures price jump again. Meanwhile, beauty dish corn rise considerably, also for domestic corn futures price formed a boost. October start, the new season after corn listed spot price considerably promote futures prices continue to take high rise considerably, and liquidity flooding financial environment for corn futures rose provides capital base, domestic corn futures contract continuously break record high. In late November, the country has issued a series of measures to stabilize prices of pressure, corn futures prices began to appear dropped trend. In December, the corn spot price strong support, DaShangSuo corn futures price again is strong. On December 31, DaShangSuo corn index closed quote 2289 yuan/ton, rising from the end of 446 yuan/ton, or 24.20%.
Domestic policy corn acquisitions
This new season corn listed, as acquisitions unfolds, the corn ShangShiLiang began to increase gradually. Especially along with the country in late November price stability measures introduced gradually, farmers rised mood eased, corn ShangShiLiang relatively early maize increase. According to the state bureau data, by December 31, 2010, hebei, Inner Mongolia, liaoning, jilin, heilongjiang, shandong, henan, sichuan, shaanxi and gansu provinces in 10 corn the primary production provinces (areas) various grain jobseekers acquisition 2010 new production 3006.5 tons, including corn acquisition of state-owned grain enterprises 762.8 tons, which accounts for 25% of the total amount of purchase.
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